| MAGAZINE |

CORONAVIRUS COVERAGe

How the COVID-19 outbreak grew from a few cases in China to a global pandemic in less than three months

BY MANUEL CANALES &

IRENE BERMAN-VAPORIS

published october 13, 2020

Leaked reports cite what health officials describe as cases of viral pneumonia in Wuhan, China. Not even three weeks later, similar cases are confirmed in Thailand, Japan, and South Korea. Soon cases proliferate around the globe: Within 58 days, cases are confirmed on every continent except Antarctica.

DEC. 31, 2019*

Wuhan has 27 pneumonia cases of unknown cause.

JAN. 30, 2020

The World Health Organization declares a global health emergency.

FEB. 13

A spike in China includes previously suspected cases.

MAR. 11

The WHO classifies COVID-19 as a pandemic.

APR. 3

More than a million total cases are confirmed worldwide.

There were more than 1.4 million confirmed cases in the first 100 days, and confirmed cases are only a portion of the true number of cases. Many countries issued health and containment policies to curb the spread of COVID-19. Ninety-two percent of countries had implemented significant lockdown measures by April 8.

COVID-19 hit countries at different times, and not all governments took swift action in the 100 days following their first case. From no restrictions to stringent lockdowns, no approach was guaranteed to suppress the contagion.

NO CLEAR METHOD FOR SUCCESS

This index assesses the intensity of a government’s response across 11 containment and health measures, including school and work closures, stay-at-home orders, and travel restrictions. Policies that were proactive—rather than reactive—

often were more successful.

Number of days before a country implemented significant measures

Daily deaths (seven-day average)

State policies failed to get the virus under control in the United States

The U.S. was slow to act following its first confirmed case. Individual states set a broad range of policies in the absence of a unified national approach. By March 22, the U.S. had the greatest number of daily cases in the world; daily deaths continued to soar in April.

First case reported

Jan. 21

Sweden resisted a full lockdown

Unlike most countries, Sweden didn’t close schools or businesses. The country’s lax policies never reached a “significant” threshold. The result: Sweden saw more deaths than neighboring countries under lockdown.

Never reached significant

response threshold

Swift, strict measures weren’t effective in Peru

Peru was quick to impose a restrictive lockdown, which included closing its borders and implementing a nationwide curfew. Yet COVID-19 deaths continued to climb. Banks became early hot spots for infection, as unemployed people had to stand in long lines to collect relief.

An early epicenter, Italy reined in the spread of COVID-19

In March the crisis overwhelmed hospitals in northern Italy. Though initial efforts to isolate zones of the country were unsuccessful, severe national restrictions on movement helped Italy gradually flatten its curve.

A public health campaign succeeded in Thailand

Thailand was the first country outside of China to confirm a COVID-19 case, and community cooperation played a crucial role. To promote public health, over one million village health volunteers went door-to-door, helping to keep deaths low.

As the outbreak ballooned around the world, countries scrambled to implement new policies to contain COVID-19. There were many different paths to success—and failure—as countries navigated

the uncharted pandemic.

* In March, the South China Morning

Post reported that China’s first case

may have been on November 17, 2019.

MANUEL CANALES, IRENE BERMAN-

VAPORIS, TAYLOR MAGGIACOMO,

AND TED SICKLEY, NGM STAFF

SOURCES: THOMAS HALE, LAURA HALLAS, AND TOBY PHILLIPS, OXFORD COVID-19 GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TRACKER, BLAVATNIK SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT; EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DISEASE PREVENTION AND CONTROL

MAGAZINE | CORONAVIRUS COVERAGe

How the coronavirus outbreak grew from a few cases in China to a global pandemic in less than three months

BY MANUEL CANALES &

IRENE BERMAN-VAPORIS

published october 13, 2020

Leaked reports cite what health officials describe as cases of viral pneumonia in Wuhan, China. Not even three weeks later, similar cases are confirmed in Thailand, Japan, and South Korea. Soon cases proliferate around the globe: Within 58 days, cases are confirmed on every continent except Antarctica.

FEB. 13

A spike in China includes previously suspected cases.

JAN. 30, 2020

The World Health Organization declares a global health emergency.

DEC. 31, 2019*

Wuhan has 27 pneumonia cases of unknown cause.

MAR. 11

The WHO classifies COVID-19 as a pandemic.

APR. 3

More than a million total cases are confirmed worldwide.

There were more than 1.4 million confirmed cases in the first 100 days, and confirmed cases are only a portion of the true number of cases. Many countries issued health and containment policies to curb the spread of COVID-19. Ninety-two percent of countries had implemented significant lockdown measures by April 8.

COVID-19 hit countries at different times, and not all governments took swift action in the 100 days following their first case. From no restrictions to stringent lockdowns, no approach was guaranteed to suppress the contagion.

NO CLEAR METHOD FOR SUCCESS

This index assesses the intensity of a government’s response across 11 containment and health measures, including school and work closures, stay-at-home orders, and travel restrictions. Policies that were proactive—rather than reactive—

often were more successful.

Number of days before a country implemented significant measures

Daily deaths (seven-day average)

State policies failed to get the virus under control in the United States

The U.S. was slow to act following its first confirmed case. Individual states set a broad range of policies in the absence of a unified national approach. By March 22, the U.S. had the greatest number of daily cases in the world; daily deaths continued to soar in April.

First case reported

Jan. 21

Sweden resisted a full lockdown

Unlike most countries, Sweden didn’t close schools or businesses. The country’s lax policies never reached a “significant” threshold. The result: Sweden saw more deaths than neighboring countries

under lockdown.

Never reached significant

response threshold

Swift, strict measures weren’t effective in Peru

Peru was quick to impose a restrictive lockdown, which included closing its borders and implementing a nationwide curfew. Yet COVID-19 deaths continued to climb. Banks became early hot spots for infection, as unemployed people had to stand in long lines to collect relief.

An early epicenter, Italy reined in the spread of COVID-19

In March the crisis overwhelmed hospitals in northern Italy. Though initial efforts to isolate zones of the country were unsuccessful, severe national restrictions on movement helped Italy gradually flatten its curve.

A public health campaign succeeded in Thailand

Thailand was the first country outside of China to confirm a COVID-19 case, and community cooperation played a crucial role. To promote public health, over one million village health volunteers went door-to-door, helping to keep deaths low.

As the outbreak ballooned around the world, countries scrambled to implement new policies to contain COVID-19. There were many different paths to success—and failure—as countries navigated the uncharted pandemic.

* In March, the South China Morning Post reported that China’s first case may have been on November 17, 2019.

MANUEL CANALES, IRENE BERMAN-VAPORIS,

TAYLOR MAGGIACOMO, AND TED SICKLEY, NGM STAFF

SOURCES: THOMAS HALE, LAURA HALLAS, AND TOBY PHILLIPS, OXFORD COVID-19 GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TRACKER, BLAVATNIK SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT; EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DISEASE PREVENTION AND CONTROL

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